UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev Predictions
Jairzinho Rozenstruik (12) vs. Shamil Gaziev (UNR)
Rozenstruik (13-5-0) is facing off against the undefeated Gaziev (12-0-0) after losing to Jailton Almeida (20-2-0) back in May of 2023. He had lost the fight via submission in the first round, as is Jailton’s specialty. Gaziev is coming off of a second round TKO of Martin Buday (13-2-0).
A few things to note are that Gaziev has a 2″ inch height advantage and lands over 3.5 more significant strikes per minute than Rozenstruik. Rozenstruik will obviously look to strike with Gaziev as his ground game is pretty non-existent. The issue is that Gaziev can grapple and strike. Only 8% of his wins have went to decision with 67% by TKO/KO and 25% by submission that are all by rear naked choke.
I see Gaziev taking down Rozenstruik and beating him up until he gives his back for the submission. If not, he may chose just to TKO him. Either way, I’m taking Gaziev in the distance.
Pick: Gaziev (Inside the Distance: 100%, Submission: 70%, TKO/KO: 30%)
Vitor Petrino (UNR) vs. Tyson Pedro (UNR)
Another undefeated fighter, Petrino (10-0-0) seems to hit like a truck with 70% of his wins being by knockout and currently on a two fight TKO/KO streak takes on (10-4-0) Tyson Pedro. Pedro is 6 years older than 26 year old Petrino and the two have fought the same opposition on a few different occasions.
For example, Pedro has a UD loss to Modestas Bukauskas (15-6-0) while Petrino has a 2nd round knockout win against him. Pedro also knocked out Anton Turkalj (8-3-0) in round 1 of his last fight while Petrino went the distance with him in their fight in March of 2023.
Now on to my pick, I think with Vitor only being 26 we haven’t seen his ceiling yet. He is a young, strong fighter who can put you out with nasty hooks. Pedro was last knocked out by Maurício Rua (27-14-1) and since then, his opponents have a combined record of 48-29 to Petrino’s 52-18. That is around a 25% differential between their last 4 opponents records. I am taking Petrino inside the distance for this one. Tyson could survive, but I feel that Petrino’s youth and aggression will be too much
Pick: Petrino (TKO: 80%, Decision: 20%)
Alex Perez (7) vs. Muhammad Mokaev (8)
Alex Perez (24-7-0) is taking on yet another undefeated phenom in Muhammad Mokaev (10-0-0). Perez has a career plagued with cancelled bouts and fights against top quality opposition. For example, he has cancelled fights against Manel Kape (19-6-0), Kai Kara-France (24-11-0), Amir Albazi (17-1-0), before being submitted by the current champion Alexandre Pantoja (27-5-0), several more cancellations against Askar Askarov (15-1-1) and Matt Schnell (16-7-0), and another first round loss to Deiveson Figueiredo (22-3-1). It goes even deeper from here, talk about a murderer’s row.
Now, up against the young 23 year old Mokaev, he again finds himself in familiar territory. Mokaev has a 4.5″ inch reach advantage as well as a 1″ inch height advantage. He is 8 years younger than Perez and had his last fight in October of 2023 to Perez being out since July of 2022 besides a grappling match in between.
All of that being said, I am actually leaning towards Perez here. Mokaev is a great fighter and an amazing submission artist but I think he is still really young for the division and could possibly lose this one. Perez has a ton of experience with 31 fights and his record is incredibly deep, even if he has losses to some of the greats of his division. I see Perez getting a decision here, being able to stop Mokaev from getting that signature submission and keeping the pace his own. Lets go with the underdog!
Pick: Perez (Decision: 70%) Mokaev (Submission: 30%)
Eryk Anders (UNR) vs. Jamie Pickett (UNR)
Pickett (13-10-0) otherwise known as, the man who Bo Nickal need in the sack is taking on “Ya Boi” Eryk Anders (15-8-0). Pickett is on a 4 fight losing streak while Anders is riding a 2 fight losing streak if you don’t count his grappling win over Kyle Daukaus (14-4-0) at Fury Pro Grappling. This means that neither of these guys have had a win since 2022. Granted, Anders’ win is at least in December of that year where as Pickett’s win is in January.
There isn’t too much for me to say about this fight. Pickett has a 7″ inch reach advantage and is a year younger than Anders. The problem for me is that Anders has faced much better competition and is need of a win here to probably keep his career going. I think he is too powerful for Pickett who although has great physical attributes, can be pretty slow and Anders will looks to tie him up and tire him out quickly before using his striking.
I am going with Anders to get the KO/TKO win here.
Pick: Anders (TKO: 70%, Decision: 30%)
Umar Nurmagomedov (13) vs. Bekzat Almakhan (UNR)
Another battle featuring an undefeated fighter. Nurmagomedov (16-0-0) was supposed to fight Cory Sandhagen (17-4-0) but that fell out a bit ago. Since then, he has been waiting for a contender to sign on the dotted line but has been having some trouble. That is, until Bekzat Almakhan (17-1-0) stepped up to the plate. I think that this fight will be really fun and Almakhan should put up a solid fight.
Some things to note are that Almakhan is making his UFC debut, Nurmagomedov is two years older. Nurmagomedov also had a great knockout in his last fight but he actually splits his win methods by submission and decision at 44% a piece with the leftover for KO. 76% of Almakhan’s wins are by TKO/KO making me think this should be a banger.
I think with Almakhan’s lone loss being a submission, Nurmagomedov should be able to snatch a neck here at some point for the win. For a degenerate bet, I’m going to throw a little on Almakhan by TKO/KO since anyone can get caught.
Pick: Nurmagomedov (Submission: 60%, Decision: 40%), Degenerate Pick: Almakhan (TKO)
Matt Schnell (9) vs. Steve Erceg (12)
Schnell (16-7-0) is coming off a TKO loss to Matheus Nicolau (19-3-1) in round 2. He is always a fun fighter and comes to win. So much so, that only 14% of his losses are by decision. Erceg (11-1-0) is riding a 6 fight win streak with his most recent being a UD win over Alessandro Costa (13-4-0).
What’s fun about this fight is that Erceg has great footwork and submission skills but is typically comfortable to outpoint his opponents. Schnell won’t let him do that and always pushes the pace to the best of his ability. A few notes on each fighter are that Schnell is 34, while Erceg is only 28. They are both 5’8″ inches tall and Schnell will have a 2″ inch reach advantage.
I am picking Erceg to get the win by submission here after hurting Schnell on the feet. Schnell will make this a dog fight but I think at 34, especially at flyweight, his best years are probably behind him. Erceg on the other hand is on the come-up and I think the UFC may be giving him a fight where he shines. Never count out Schnell though, he is very tough.
Pick: Erceg (Submission: 90%, Decision: 10%)
